Small non-agricultural markets were "shocked" in June, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly

On July 3, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 96.75. On Wednesday, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, returning to above the 97 mark during the session, but then part of the gains were retold and finally closed up 0.13% to 96.77; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.284%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.797%. The weaker than expected "small non-farm" has sparked hope that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier. Spot gold broke through the 3https://www.aihuatrade.com$350 mark during the US session, and finally closed up 0.55%, closing at $3357.15/oz; spot silver finally closed up 1.46%, at $36.54/oz. As Iran suspended cooperation with the United Nations nuclear monitoring agency, the United States and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, and the two oils rose by 3% during the day. WTI crude oil began to rise during the European session and returned to above $66 in the US session, and finally closed up 2.82% to $66.62 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.7% to $68.73 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 96.75. Although the dollar was under pressure ahead of Thursday's release of key U.S. labor market data and concerns about trade persisted, the dollar showed signs of recovery and made a meaningful rebound on Wednesday, riding from multi-year lows against other currencies. Technically, if the US dollar index rises above the 97.00 level,It will move towards the 97.54 50MA.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1799. On Wednesday, ADP announced that private employment fell in June, the first decline in two years. Despite the initial weakening of the dollar, it regained some lost ground, dragging the euro/dollar back below 1.1800 as traders prepare to release the latest employment data. Technically, if the EUR/USD successfully closes above the 1.1800 level, it will move to the next resistance level, which is in the range of 1.1895–1.1910.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3649. The pound/dollar plummeted on Wednesday, and the pound/dollar fell sharply, falling below the 1.3700 mark, driven by a sharp rise in UK bond yields. Intraday bidding actions managed to scrape off the worst lows, but the pound price move is still ready to fall further as the pound and the dollar race to bottom. Technically, GBP/USD is trying to close below support level 1.3620–1.3640. If GBP/USD successfully closes below 1.3620, it will move towards the next support level 1.3500–1.3520.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading around 3349.75. Gold prices climbed cautiously during the North American period as traders prepare for the release of the latest non-farm employment (NFP) data in the United States, which could be crucial to the interest rate path set by the Federal Reserve. The latest employment report disclosed by ADP shows that www.aihuatrade.companies stop hiring instead of leaving employees when adapting to the current economic environment. News of Microsoft's 9,000 layoffs paint a bleak outlook for the labor market outlook.

Technical: The upward bias of gold prices still exists, and traders will break through this week's peak of $3,358, clearing the way for testing the dollar mark. As depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the momentum remains bullish. Therefore, paths with minimal resistance tend toward higher prices. If gold climbs above $3400, it is expected to test $3450, with an all-time high (ATH) of $3500. Conversely, if gold falls below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) $3320, the first support level will be US$3300Yuan. A breakout through the latter will expose a swing low of $3,246 on June 30.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 66.37. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report released Wednesday showed crude oil inventories increased by 3.845 million barrels. The latest report was previously expected to show a 2 million barrel reduction. WTI crude oil has expanded its gains despite eases in supply concerns. The latest recovery began on Tuesday after a 12% decline last week.

Technical: The relative strength index (RSI) hovers around 48, indicating a lack of directional beliefs. Meanwhile, the www.aihuatrade.commodity Channel Index (CCI) showed a mild bearish momentum around -43, without entering the oversold area. Continuous breakthroughs above $67.08 (50% retracement level) may open the door to recovery. If the price holds above the key support level and breaks above the $67.08 to rise above the $70 psychological level, a surge in bullish momentum could pave the way for the 78.6% Fibonacci level $74.11.

Forex market trading reminder on July 3, 2025

①09:45 China's June Caixin Service Industry PMI

②14:30 Switzerland's June CPI monthly rate

③15:00 Ministry of www.aihuatrade.commerce held a regular press conference

④15:50 France's June service industry PMI final value

⑤15:55 Germany's June service industry PMI final value

⑤ p>

⑥16:00Eurozone's final service industry PMI in June

⑦16:30Eurozone's final service industry PMI in June

⑧19:30European Central Bank announces the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting

⑨20:30U.S. unemployment rate in June

⑩20:30U.S. non-agricultural employment population after the June season adjustment

20:30Europe in the first week from the United States to June 28 Number of unemployment benefits

20:30 The average annual rate of hourly wages in the United States in June

20:30 The average monthly wages in the United States in June

20:30 The U.S. May trade account

21:45 The U.S. Global Services PMI final value

22:00 The U.S. June ISM non-manufacturing PMI

22:00 The U.S. May factory order Monthly rate

22:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the week from the United States to June 27

23:00 Fed Bostic delivered a speech on monetary policy the next day at 01:00 the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to July 4

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