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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn Official Website]: ADP has triggered a US dollar sell-off, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 2nd". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market conditions
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures rose 0.19%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.10%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.01%. The German DAX index rose 0.17%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.25%, the French CAC40 index rose 1.08%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.53%.
2. Market news interpretation
ADP burst into a surprise selling US dollar: the euro counterattacked in the short term but the trend was still bearish. ⑴ The number of ADP employment in the United States in June fell by 33,000, far lower than the expected +95,000. The previous value was revised down from 37,000 to 29,000, the largest single-month decline since April 2020. ⑵ After the data was released, the yield on the US 2-year Treasury bonds plunged simultaneously with the US dollar index, the interest rate spread between the US and Germany narrowed to a new low this year, and the euro rebounded rapidly against the US dollar from the low of 1.1747 to 1.1780. ⑶ US stock futures weakened simultaneously with the US dollar/offshore RMB, further amplifying the dollar selling pressure, but the euro closed down 0.25% on the same day, indicating limited rebound momentum. ⑷ Technically, the Euro daily line and monthly line RSI continue to decline, forming a clear bearish signal, and a short-term rebound may be difficult to change the medium-term downward channel. ⑸ The market focus turns to Friday's non-farm report. If the data is upset again, the US dollar may test the 2024 low of 94.62, but the Fed's wait-and-see position may limit the upward space of the euro. ⑹In general, the unexpected upset of ADP only triggered a technical pullback in the US dollar, and the trend reversal of the euro still requires stronger fundamental support. Investors should be wary of the risk of false breakthroughs in data fluctuations. British Prime Minister Spokes: British Chancellor Reeves "did not resign"
British Chancellor Reeves seemed upset in the House of www.aihuatrade.commons this afternoon, but Downing Street insisted that she "wouldn't go anywhere." A spokesman for British Prime Minister Stamer added that Reeves “had not proposed resignation.” This www.aihuatrade.comes after the government's welfare bill was first passed in the House of www.aihuatrade.commons on Tuesday, with its huge concessions likely to cost the Treasury millions of dollars. Meanwhile, a spokesman for Chancellor Reeves said she was upset about a “private thing.”
U.S. mortgage rates fell to the lowest since April, boosting refinancing applications
U.S. mortgage rates fell to the lowest since early April last week, boosting the accelerated recovery of housing refinancing applications. The contract interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages fell by 9 basis points to 6.79% in the week ending June 27, data released by the American Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday. Interest rates on 15-year mortgages fell to 6.06%, the fourth consecutive week of decline. The association's mortgage refinancing metrics rose 6.5%, reaching its highest since the week of April 11.
20 U.S. states jointly accused the Trump administration of illegally sharing medical insurance data
Led by California, 20 U.S. states collectively filed a lawsuit in the federal district court of the Northern District of California on the 1st, accusing the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services of providing patient personal data under the “Medicaid Program” to the Department of Homeland Security for violations of the law. In the 59-page indictment, 20 state attorneys general jointly alleged that under the Congressional Act and other relevant laws that set up the Medicaid program, personal data in this universal health system is confidential and can only be shared in favor of public health and certain specific circumstances. However, according to media reports, the Department of Homeland Security has no restrictions on access to the data managed by the Department of Health and Human Services and plans to use this data to build a database for "massive deportation" and other immigration enforcement efforts.
The Israeli Central Bank is expected to remain unchanged in July, and expectations for interest rate cuts in August have heated up. 1. Reuters survey showed that 10 of the 11 economists expected the Israeli central bank to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% at its July 7 meeting, and only one person predicted a 25 basis point cut to 4.25%. In May, inflation fell unexpectedly to 3.1% (still above the target range of 1-3%), but the minutes of the central bank's May meeting emphasized the upward risks of inflation, and the Policy www.aihuatrade.committee unanimously decided not to cut interest rates for the time being. 3. The Israeli-Iran conflict that broke out on June 13 ended quickly, Israel claimed a decisive victory, the Iranian nuclear threat was lifted in the short term, and the geopolitical risk premium fell significantly: Israeli Shekel appreciated by about 8% against the US dollar since the conflict; the 5-year CDS spread fell to 86 basis points (warThe first 122 basis points), the lowest since March. 4. Analysts believe that the decline in risk premium and the appreciation of exchange rate have met the prerequisites for interest rate cuts: Katz, chief economist at LeaderCapital, bluntly stated: "The risk premium has dropped sharply, why not cut interest rates? Even if it drops to 4.25%, monetary policy is still restrictive." Bahar, an economist at the National Bank of Israel, said: "The central bank has basically www.aihuatrade.completed all the conditions for interest rate cuts, but may hope to see further stability. The interest rate cut on August 20 is more realistic." 5. In terms of economic fundamentals, Israel's GDP grew by 3.7% annually in the first quarter, and it is expected to rebound rapidly after a brief drag on conflict in the second quarter, providing support for the shift in monetary policy. 3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1780, a drop of 0.22%. Before the New York Stock Exchange (Euro-USD) rose on the last trading day, using a calm correction trend that led to its recovery from its previous gains, opening the way for the bullish momentum needed to continue to rise. This recovery is backed by the apparently overbought conditions of (RSI), opening the way for more gains without the strong technical pressure that could hinder its tracks.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3650, a drop of 0.68%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (GBPUSD) price stabilized at high levels in the last intraday trading after it successfully gained the positive momentum needed to recover and successfully got rid of the apparent overbought state of (RSI), and began to show positive overlapping signals, with the main bullish trend dominating in the short term and trading along a slash, with positive support continuing as it traded above the EAM50.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3347.73, an increase of 0.27%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price fell on the last trading day, which is a revised natural trend aimed at collecting previous returns, and the price rebounds and lowers to test the dynamic support represented by the EMA50, which remains an important technical pillar of short-term price trends.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 36.320, an increase of 0.86%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price rose on the last trading day because it relies on support from the secondary bullish trend line on a short-term basis, providing bullish momentum to try to exceedMore negative pressures to the EMA50, this rise occurs after (RSI) reaches an oversold level www.aihuatrade.compared to the price trend, opening the way to achieve more returns.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 66.210, an increase of 1.16%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) maintained a narrow range of fluctuations between the $65.56 resistance and $63.70 support, indicating that the market is in a state of chaos and expectations, waiting for new motivations to push prices to break through this range.
4. Institutional View
Capital Macro: U.S. Treasury bonds may face challenges for the rest of the year
Capital Macro analyst Thomas Mathews said in a report that despite the strong performance of the US Treasury bonds recently, it is expected to be difficult for the rest of the year. “The weeks-long rally in U.S. Treasury bonds appear to have been suspended,” Mathews said. The remarks made by Fed Chairman Powell at a meeting in Sintra, Portugal appear to be a factor in the suspension of the rally. Powell said that as long as the economy is stable, there will be no rush to cut interest rates. "In our case, we doubt whether the Fed will get the evidence needed to cut interest rates by next year, and whether it will succumb to political pressure," he said. Capita Macro expects the Fed to cut interest rates by next year.
Institution: Europe is the most popular destination for self-driving in the summer, and orders in South Africa have increased by more than 300% year-on-year. On July 2, data from Zuzu Car "Summer Global Self-driving Tour Vane" showed that as of now, the number of self-driving bookings in outbound has increased by 13.5% year-on-year since June, and summer outbound travel has set off another wave. In terms of destinations, the top ten popular destinations for outbound self-driving tours during the summer are Italy, France, Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Thailand, and Canada. Overall, Europe is the most popular destination for outbound travel this summer, with popular European tourist cities such as Milan, London, Paris, Reykjavik, Rome, Munich, Frankfurt, Madrid, and Oslo in full bloom. ANZ: The ECB may be close to the interest rate trough and is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in September
ANZ pointed out that the ECB cut interest rates by 200 basis points in the past 12 months, making great progress in the easing cycle, and the bank may be close to the interest rate trough. We expect the ECB to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points to 1.75% in September. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that monetary policy is in a good state and is not on the preset route. According to our estimates, the current neutral range of the European Central Bank policy interest rate is 1.50%-2.50%. Currently, the deposit rate of 2.0% is atmedian value in this range. We expect the euro zone to grow weakly in the next few quarters and the ECB will maintain a tendency toward easing policy.
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