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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn" Platform]: The US dollar has ended its nine consecutive declines and it is difficult to change its decline. Is the downward trend still the main theme?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Asian market market
On Wednesday, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, and once returned to above the 97 mark during the session, but then part of the gains were given up. As of now, the US dollar price is 96.81.
Tariff policy development: ①Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, and the Vietnamese market will be fully opened to the United States, and Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff to the United States, which applies to any www.aihuatrade.commercial goods entering the United States, and imposes a 40% tariff on transshipped goods; Vietnamese national media said that the United States will significantly reduce tariffs on a variety of Vietnamese products. ② Media said that the US-Japan negotiations were blocked, Japan firmly refused to retain the 25% automobile tariff, and the United States threatened to impose more severe punishments.
U.S. employment data in June: ADP employment fell by 33,000 in June, the largest drop since March 2023; challenger www.aihuatrade.companies laid off jobs in June recorded 47,999,000, the lowest since December 2024; interest rate futures were almost fully priced at the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September.
The US FHFA Director asked Congress to investigate Powell's fraud, saying it had constituted a reason to be resignable.
Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin: There is no urgency to change the policy at present. Trump's "Big Beautiful" bill is blocked in the House of Representatives, within the Republican PartyThe strife has escalated, and lawmakers say that more than 20 votes are missing for the bill to be passed.
British Treasury Secretary Reeves burst into tears in parliament, the market was worried that he might resign, and the pound and British debt fell sharply. The British Prime Minister urgently claimed that he supported Reeves.
Bank of England Monetary Policy www.aihuatrade.committee Tyler: I think there will be five interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Iranian president approved the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency; the US Department of Defense reiterated the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, saying that "the Iranian nuclear program has been postponed for about 1 to 2 years."
Summary of institutional views
Analyst JustinLow: Non-farm farms will set the tone for July trading, and no matter what the result is, this will not change
Everyone is paying attention to U.S. labor market data to determine the tone of July trading. Federal funds futures market shows that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates at the end of this month is only about 27%, and the Fed is unlikely to suddenly change its position. Especially as trade and tariff uncertainties continue to penetrate wider markets. The market has fully digested the expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September, and another rate cut in October is almost expected. By the end of the year, the Fed will cut interest rates by 67 basis points, or at least twice by 25 basis points, close to three. So today's poor data should put pressure on the Fed, at least starting from September.
The dollar has fallen to the bottom and if today's data doesn't help much, the dollar may continue to be sold. While these data are primarily related to the Fed and the economic outlook, the Fed still has other major considerations (tariff agreements and tax bills). The market is looking forward to the first action in September, and unless the Fed makes a statement otherwise, this will remain the basic situation regardless of today's U.S. employment report. Keep this in mind in case we knee-jerk responses to relatively good data in the near future.
Ryan McIntyre, senior managing partner of Sprott: Global central banks continue to buy gold, and gold will rise again when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates... US dollar
Last week, U.S. debt broke the new milestone of $37 trillion. It is worth noting that the United States is not the only country with a surge in debt, and Europe has also increased its spending significantly in recent months. As countries around the world are spending deficits at similar rates, currency depreciation has not immediately emerged. However, this potential depreciation is clearly reflected in the gold market, which continues to trade near historical highs against all major currencies around the world.
Gold is regarded as the only "currency" that is not attached to any country's debt. The current value of gold is fully in line with global debt levels. Therefore, it is unlikely that gold will fall sharply below $3,000 again. In this environment, central banks are expected to continue to buy gold, even if their purchase speed may slow down from the past three years.
Although I still look good at gold in the long term, the risks in the short term are also increasing. The current economic pessimism has reached its peak, and this reversal of emotion may weakenThe role of gold as a safe-haven asset. However, any short-term pullback should be considered a buying opportunity. Investors should continue to pay attention to the Fed's signals in the second half of the year, which may trigger a new round of gold rally before the end of the year. As for the potential of gold in the second half of the year, if last year is used as the roadmap, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates again, I think gold prices may rise $300 per ounce, thus putting gold at a price of $3,700.
Forexlive analyst Eamonn Sheridan: Trump's latest pressure on Powell to resign was carried out against this important background
Trump posted again on social media that Powell should resign immediately. It is worth noting that Trump and some other members of the administration should have been informed of the US non-farm employment report in advance at around 4 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday (4 AM Beijing time on Thursday). This latest statement from Trump may suggest that the report is performing poorly - and it is possible.
Westpac: Non-farm payroll may fall into the "data correction trap" again in June
The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased strongly by 139,000 in May. However, the 95,000 new jobs in May were offset by revised data from the previous two months, with a net increase of only 44,000. The U.S. labor market appears to be increasingly stagnating and vulnerable to downside risks. We expect non-farm employment to be 130,000 in June, which will be basically the same as in May, and the unemployment rate may also rise slightly to 4.3%. For the remainder of 2025, weak employment growth is expected to lead to higher unemployment. However, if a trade agreement is reached and fiscal issues are under control, the unemployment rate peaks are the greatest possibility. This will curb the economic recovery, but is unlikely to trigger a recession.
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