Non-farm farms were unexpectedly strong in June, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month was "returned to zero"!

On July 4, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.01. On Thursday, as strong U.S. employment data dispelled market expectations for the Fed's recent interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar index rose sharply before the U.S. session, then returned to above the 97 mark, and once rose to a day high of 97.42, and finally closed up 0.32% to 97.08; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.351%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.892%. Spot gold fell sharply, falling to $3311.65 during the session, falling more than $50 from the day high. Then it recovered some lost ground and finally closed down 0.94%, closing at $3325.50/oz. Although spot silver fell back, it rebounded sharply and finally closed up 0.78% to $36.82/oz. Under the cover of uncertainty, the two oils fell into the range. WTI crude oil fluctuated back and forth around $66, and finally closed down 0.58% at $66.23/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.39% at $68.51/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.01. The US dollar (USD) rose slightly on Thursday as stronger-than-expected non-farm employment data in June eased concerns about the labor market. The optimistic report helped the dollar get rid of years of lows, and traders reassessed the possibility of the Fed's rate cut in July. Technically, the US dollar index successfully closed above 50MA at 97.29, and it will move towards the nearest resistance range of 98.00–98.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1766. The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday after the U.S. released employment data for June, indicating that the Federal Reserve is not ready to reduce borrowing costs. Technically, if the euro/dollar remains below the 1.1750 level, it will move towards the support level of 1.1675–1.1690.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD was hovering around 1.3662. On Thursday, GBP/USD was hovering near the low end of the short-term decline, supported by selling pressure, forcing the US dollar to lower as the U.S. non-farm employment data (NFP) performed better than expected. The market was expected to see a lower-than-predicted result as this week’s ADP employment preview showed a sharp contraction in private sector employment, but a sharp increase in government education recruitment offset the decline in private sector employment. Technically, a break below the 1.3620 level would push GBP/USD to support 1.3500–1.3520.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold trading was around 3326.27. During the US Independence Day holiday on Friday, gold prices fluctuated narrowly in the early trading of the Asian market, and are currently trading around $3330. Affected by the unexpectedly strong non-farm employment data in June, gold prices fell nearly 1% on Thursday (July 3), and spot gold closed at $3325.87 per ounce. Strong employment data not only pushed up the US dollar and U.S. Treasury yields also significantly weakened the market's expectations of the Fed's early interest rate cuts, causing gold's attractiveness to be significantly reduced. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress passed the Trump administration's large-scale tax cuts and spending bill (the "Big and US" bill), further injecting www.aihuatrade.complex variables into the economy. Looking ahead, the gold market will be driven by multiple factors. First, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path remains key. If the rate cuts rebound in September, gold may usher in a rebound. Second, the Trump administration's www.aihuatrade.comFinance and trade policies will continue to affect market sentiment. Tax cuts and tariff policies may push up inflation expectations in the short term, thus providing support for gold, but the strength of the US dollar and the rise in U.S. Treasury and trade policies may continue to pressure gold prices.

Technical: Gold is nearThe focus of the period is on the breakthrough of the 3229-3419 range to obtain guidance, while the bulls are still at a weak point when they are below the 75% parallel line. "Gold tried to break through the next week, and the price reached a high of 3432 before the fall. The subsequent decline continued nearly 5.9% from the high and rebounded this week at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 3247 in May's rally. July has arrived and the stage has been set up, and the market focus will be directly on whether the price can break through the six-week volatility range. The resistance level is seen at a record closing high/May high of 3432-35, and it needs to break through/weekly close above 3500 to mark the recovery of a wider uptrend. Subsequent resistance levels focus on the upper parallel line, which is currently close to 3630. Breakthrough/close below 3247 will threaten a larger return in the years of uptrend. . Subsequent support is at 3121 near the May low, with the broader bullish invalid level remaining at 3000/31. If touched these areas, a downward depletion/price turning point may occur.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading around 66.18. Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday, with investors worried that U.S. tariffs may slow energy demand and major crude oil producers are expected to increase supply. OPEC+ is expected to agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day at the policy meeting this weekend, which also puts pressure on oil prices. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, which also heightened demand concerns about the country.

Technical: After WTI crude oil futures broke through the key resistance level of $65.55 yesterday, the price fell slightly today, which is a natural correction trend. $65.55 represents the upper limit of the short-term major sideways trading range. This decline is due to profit-taking and mitigating the obvious overbought situation on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), especially when these indicators start to show negative cross signals, which may temporarily limit the bullish momentum. However, the stability near the 50-day moving average (EMA50) support level enhances the possibility of stability and rebound because This moving average constitutes an important dynamic support, making the upward trend still effective.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on July 4, 2025

①14:45France May Industrial Output Monthly Rate

②15:00Swiss June Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate

③15:00Route State Council Policy Briefing

④17:00EurozoneMay PPI Monthly Rate

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